Black swan effect, what is the black swan effect?

Before the discovery of Australia, people still believed that swans were always white. That belief is very firmly based on complete reality, so schools say the concept of swans is to have completely white feathers.
But that firm belief completely changed when humans discovered Australia. The appearance of completely black swans was a huge shock to that belief, having refuted the assertion for thousands of years. Before there were no black swans, millions of swans were all white.
In Nassim Nicholas Taled’s book, he introduced the concept of a “Black Swan” with three characteristics: Unpredictable, heavy impact, and only after it happens do people look for reasons to explain it. like it.
The black swan effect can be described with the word “Shock” to describe in this life “anything can happen” and always surprises humanity.
Some stories about the black swan effect:

In Vietnam

In a book talks about Quynh and the King:
Trang Quynh told the king: What happens when walking with two legs does not fall but when standing still falls.
The King said: There is no such nonsense, there is no thing with two legs that does not fall but stands and falls. It’s absurd.
Trang Quynh said again: So the king knows that the lamp is hanging upside down but it is still lit.
The king said: Absurd, extremely unreasonable, that would never happen.
This story took place in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, during a trip to America by five Nguyen Dynasty mandarins, they witnessed the prosperity of America, from bicycles, cars and electric lights. of humanity’s newest civilization.
The above story shows us that the black swan effect can be predictable or difficult to predict. It is very possible that human knowledge has not yet reached its peak or is just the narrow conservatism of a realist and pragmatist who does not absorb new knowledge. The limitations of their conservative personality are always a shock to them.
Story of the TITANIC ship:
In 1912, the TITANIC, a giant, modern ship, a ship considered the safest passenger ship in the world that would “never sink” collided with an iceberg in the North Atlantic Ocean causing 1500 minutes of damage. people died on the first train.
The story of September 11, 2001.
In 2001, the twin towers at the World Trade Center in New York were once thought to be steel pillars as solid as stone, and incapable of collapsing, and were destroyed, killing thousands of people because of a terrorist attack. plane on September 11. In 2016, the poll results for Britain exiting the European Union were completely inferior to those in favor of remaining in the European Union with a series of analyzes on the benefits, harms, and seemingly obvious, Britain leaving the European Union is impossible. Besides, the US presidential race between two candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, for many people is a boring contest when the predicted results are so clear. People made predictions about Hillary’s great advantage and gave many satirical analyzes of Donald Trump.

Up to now we can think about Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity: every limit has a probability, nothing is absolute, anything can happen that we cannot predict.
A couple everyone saw that they were very happy but the next day they were divorced. We have just praised someone well, but then the very person we have just praised and praised has come back to harm us and we will feel a slight shock.
Through the black swan effect, when viewed from a psychological perspective, we will see that everything is a normal process of movement outside of our consciousness, and we always have to accept shocks and obvious truths. It’s natural and we think it’s normal and obvious, if we always accept new things and always adapt to change.

:: Hiệu ứng thiên nga đen, 黑天鹅效应，Cú sốc, shock,

Tags: Black Swan, Black swan effect, Cú sốc, hiệu ứng thiên nga đen, shock, thiên nga đen, 黑天鹅效应